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et quel sera le terme de cet accroissement : il est probable, au surplus, qu'il ne demeure pas le même en passant d'une époque à une autre; on peut admettre cependant une valeur moyenne se rapprochant le plus possible des résultats observés. Nous ne possédons pas de chiffres exacts pour nous guider dans le XVIIIme siècle, et le commencement du siècle actuel laisse la question plus ou moins douteuse. Il faut donc se régler d'après les recensements modernes, qui ne remontent pas au delà d'une trentaine d'années, et encore convient-il de ne les employer qu'avec circonspection.

Nous avions, d'après nos calculs sur l'état de la population en 1846, établi un accroissement que nous avons lieu de croire assez exact cet accroissement s'est montré à peu près le même pendant la période décennale suivante. Le rapport que nous avons déduit de nos différentes recherches s'élève, en moyenne, à une augmentation d'un tiers environ pour l'étendue d'un siècle. Nous regardons ce chiffre comme s'accordant généralement bien avec les valeurs calculées à la suite du recensement de 1846, et comme se vérifiant encore par le recensement de 1856. C'est-à-dire que, dans l'espace d'un siècle, la population, en augmentant d'un tiers, est actuellement, en moyenne, de 4,600,000, tandis qu'elle n'était que de 5,450,000 seulement. Voici maintenant quelle est la loi de mortalité, en dirigeant cette fois nos calculs d'après la double appréciation que nous venons d'indiquer :

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La première table de mortalité que présente notre tableau, concerne les hommes et les femmes; elle est rédigée d'après les documents du dernier recensement de 1856. On peut la comparer à la table de mortalité que nous avons calculée pour 1846, et qui concerne également les deux sexes. Les nombres donnés dans l'une de ces tables confirment assez généralement ceux qu'on trouve dans l'autre : les petites différences tiennent à des causes purement accidentelles; aussi la table moyenne qu'on en déduit, et qui se trouve classée la cinquième dans notre tableau, peut-elle être regardée comme représentant assez exactement la mortalité de la Belgique.

Les tables 2 et 3, pour les hommes et les femmes considérés séparément, font connaître la mortalité des deux sexes. On voit successivement, d'âge en âge, ce que deviennent 1,000 enfants nés dans l'un ou l'autre sexe : la figure jointe à ce mémoire fait mieux apercevoir à l'œil les points où nos tables s'écartent le plus. On reconnaîtra facilement qu'en partant de 1,000 naissances masculines et de 1,000 naissances féminines, le nombre des hommes, toujours moindre que celui des femmes, à partir de ce premier instant, commence surtout à présenter de notables différences vers l'âge de 60 ans : l'inégalité alors ne fait qu'augmenter jusqu'à la fin de la vie.

Bulletin de statistique, tome V, in-4°; 1850.

2 Généralement on ne fait guère cette distinction, qui est assez importante cependant, surtout pour le calcul des sociétés d'assurances. En la présentant ici, nous répondons à la demande qui nous a été faite par plusieurs savants, et particulièrement par M. le D' J.-E. Wappäus de Göttingue, dans son ouvrage Allgemeine Bevölkerungsstatistik, 4er vol. Leipsig, 1859.

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